Latest publication on the potential impacts of AI on global growth in IMF's F&D magazine from March 2026.
link
Key summary:
- The AI boom is unfolding against a backdrop of global uncertainty. Tariff wars, immigration restrictions, and fiscal imbalances have left the world economy more fragmented and less predictable. In this environment, AI stands out not just as a technological story but as a macroeconomic stabilizer-one of the few genuine sources of incremental demand and optimism.
- The US expansion remains capital-heavy and employment-light. Europe risks missing out unless it retools its industrial and digital policy. Emerging markets must balance opportunity with prudence, ensuring that cheap energy or favorable regulation does not substitute for long-term competitiveness.
- Policymakers and statisticians must move faster. Measurement frameworks must evolve to capture intangible capital; fiscal and monetary tools must account for sectoral divergence and new supply constraints; and international cooperation must ensure that the benefits of AI diffusion are not confined to a few economies.
#AI #innovationcommunity
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Todor Kostov
Director
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