The Team @ Apollo just published a white paper on AI and its impact on the U.S. Labor Market.
Link to full document below:
The Impact of AI on the U.S. Labor Market (July 2026)
Key summary:
- The wage and employment effects of AI adoption across U.S. occupations are examined using observed usage data from the Anthropic Economic Index rather than the theoretical exposure measures that dominate prior work.
- Using a difference-in-differences design with occupation and year fixed effects across 321 matched occupations from 2015 to 2025, the Team @ Apollo finds that high-exposure occupations experience a 6.7% decline in real wage growth post-2023 with no detectable employment effects, suggesting firms are capturing AI productivity gains through wage compression rather than workforce reduction.
- The effect is concentrated among the lowest earners: service workers face a 24.3% decline and the bottom wage quartile a 10.7% decline, while top earners show no significant effect.
- Today, 5.8 million workers are affected, but as AI adoption deepens across corporate America, this figure is likely to grow substantially, with significant implications for income inequality and labor market policy in the years ahead.
#ai #innovationcommunity
- Todor
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Todor Kostov
Director
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