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BloombergNEF just published its new US data center capacity forecast.

Link to update here

Key summary:

• Forecast has gone up again. BloombergNEF's forecasted 2030 installed US data center capacity is now 118 gigawatts (GW), an upwards revision of 52% compared to the December 2025 forecast. They expect 194GW of data centers to be online in the US by 2035 – an 83% upward revision.
• They've integrated an AI chip scenario for the first time. To provide an upper bound on how much the pipeline could grow, BNEF has produced a second scenario based on Bloomberg Intelligence's AI chip sales outlook. BNEF's AI chip scenario indicates there could be as much as 325GW of data center power capacity added globally between 2023-2033, if there were no other constraints. Of this, BNEF expects 207GW to go to the US.
• Hyperscaler capacity triples over the next decade in their outlook, but non-hyperscaler capacity nearly quintuples, driven by an increasing number of giga-campuses. While hyperscalers – specifically Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon Web Services – have faster development timelines, most new capacity added to our project pipeline is actually non-hyperscalers. By 2035, hyperscaler capacity reaches 57GW, compared with 138GW for non-hyperscalers. Separating the types of developers is increasingly important as a wave of first-time data center owners enters the market.
• BNEF dug into the details of the largest 150 projects announced in the US to understand the nuance of developer type, and regional considerations. They found that 52 of the largest 100 projects in the US are announced by companies that have never built one before, accounting for 87GW. This may not lead to cancellations but it increases execution risk. Even developers with experience are likely to face new challenges. For the 100 largest projects, the median developer scaling factor – the ratio between a given project and the largest project previously delivered by its developer – rose from 2.1 in 1Q 2015 to 8.7 in 4Q 2025.
• Development timelines are shortening and this impacts their forecast. Development timeline is defined as the preconstruction and construction phases. A gap is becoming increasingly obvious between the development timeline for hyperscalers vs non-hyperscalers. Hyperscalers are now taking 5.3 years for development, compared to non-hyperscalers taking 8.4 years. The gap is most stark in the preconstruction phase (3 years versus 5.7 years), implying that operator type matters most before a project breaks ground, while, historically, execution risk narrows once construction begins. Although BNEF is monitoring key markets such as West Texas where execution risk may be rising.
• On-site gas generation must play a significant role if BNEF's US data center forecast is to be met. While there is 124GW of announced on-site gas plant capacity being built for data centers, they have only mapped 56% of this to a target commissioning date. The most new data center demand that the US power grid has connected in one year is estimated by BNEF as 10GW. If this rate does not accelerate, 48GW of on-site gas needs to be built by 2035 to meet BNEF's base-case data center forecast.