Things are changing quickly, don't they?
Let's look at what's happening in Cuba?
"Forced decarbonisation" - forgive me, but i like the sound of that. We all need to be forced to decarbonise (hopefully not like that, but just naturally by our own consciousness and brave/sensible decisions).
In the past year Cuba has unintentionally went through forced decarbonistaion. The country was under a near-total oil blockade and moved from 5.8% to roughly 20% of solar generation in just 12 months! THis was one of the fastest pv build outs in the developing world. China now finances dozens of solar parks across the country. The country's energy mix is reshaped. What does this mean for a geopolitical footprint of Cuba?
Cuba can now hit a high PV peaks daytime, but with no grid-scale storage and ageing transmission infrastructure, the system suffered a big shortfall this week. Blackouts were triggered across more than 60% of the country. Panels without storage solve the problem and can also amplify volatility if the system planing lags behind deploment.
But doesn't that represent an investment opportunity??
The Cuban playbook offers rapid decarbonisation which is possible when projects are standardised, political will aligns and vendor finance mobilises at scale. But there is a warning too. Pushing renewables without coresponding investment in storage and grid flexibility can create new points of fragility for the system (technical, conomic, and geopolitical as well).
So do you go fast and build something that is already in motion? Or do you sit and wait until things are close to perfect and then launch/invest and risk that the rest of the world will have moved on?
What is the answer for investors? Would be great to hear sober views on who funds the balance of this system and where it presents an opportunity?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/cuba-donald-trump-energy-crisis-b2939879.html
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Aya Pariy
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